Gilbert and East Valley Real Estate News & Market Trends

You’ll find our blog to be a wealth of information, covering everything from local market statistics and home values to community happenings. That’s because we care about the community and want to help you find your place in it. Please reach out if you have any questions at all. We’d love to talk with you!

June 30, 2023

4th of July events 2023 (East Valley)

Mesa (Downtown) Free

Arizona Celebration of Freedom 2023

Car Show - Food  - Music - Laser Show - Fireworks

6:00 to 10:00 - Fireworks at 9:30 pm

https://tinyurl.com/5n7xx7px

 

Gilbert (Gilbert Regional Park) Free

Gilbert 4th of July Celebration

Food - Music - Fireworks

4:00 to 10:00 - Fireworks at 9:00 pm

https://tinyurl.com/efy3cbw3

 

Scottsdale (West World) $$$

Scottsdale 4th of July Celebration

Food - Music - Rodeo - Fireworks

5:00 to 9:00 - Fireworks at 9:00 pm

https://tinyurl.com/2bffm47j

 

Tempe (Tempe Diablo Stadium) $$$

Tempe 4th of July Celebration

Food - Music - Kid’s Activities - Fireworks

5:00 to 9:15 - Fireworks at 9:15 pm

https://tinyurl.com/3j2bekxz

 

Chandler (Downtown Chandler) Free

Chandler’s All-American Bash

Food - Music- Kid’s Activities - Pyrotechnic Show

7:00 to 9:25 pm

https://tinyurl.com/22y8unst

 

Queen Creek (Schnepf Farms) $$$

Hometown 4th at Schnepf Farms

Food - Music - Foam Water Pit - Fireworks

4:00 to 9:00 pm

https://tinyurl.com/nhhvmw6h

 

June 27, 2023

Median Hits $440K, Annual Appreciation Expected to be Positive Again Soon

For Buyers:

Last month we reported that the year-over-year supply change will be negative within 6 weeks, and at that time, supply was 80% higher than the previous year. Now 5 weeks later, supply is only 3.7% higher than last year’s count and is expected to be below 2022 in another week. New listings continue to be insufficient in replacing properties that have gone under contract, resulting in overall supply dropping an average of 151 listings per week within the last month.

That’s a slower rate of decline compared to previous months, but it’s not because more sellers decided to get off the fence and list their homes. The slower decline is in response to demand weakening when mortgage rates increased from 6.5% to 7.1% within 2 weeks last month, the shock causing many buyers to take a breath. Once again, just when housing economists got optimistic in April about mortgage rates stabilizing or declining, less-than-favorable inflation reports caused them to spike once again. It’s tough to make mortgage rate predictions these days.

Since then, conventional mortgage rates have dropped only slightly, hovering around 6.9%. The downturn in demand has created a noticeable advantage for FHA buyers, who had been mostly rejected by sellers over the past 2 years in favor of cash investors. As investors have retreated back to normal levels this year, putting traditional buyers back in the driver’s seat, FHA increased the amount of money they’re willing to loan to $530K. They also lowered their mortgage insurance premiums by $100s on monthly payments annually. These changes have resulted in the market share of closings in Greater Phoenix funded by FHA going from just 9% in April 2022 to 22% in April 2023 on sales under $600K.

Sellers are still contributing to closing costs and buying down mortgage rates on behalf of the buyers to make the monthly payments attractive and competitive compared to local rental rates. In May, many lenders upped the game and announced new down payment assistance programs and loans with just 1% down. Each program has separate requirements that need to be explained by a qualified loan officer, but they are often focused on getting first-time home buyers into entry-level homes.

You may be surprised when we tell you that does not disqualify many buyers who have previously owned a home. Search the definition of first-time home buyer online, and you’ll find that any individual who has not owned their primary residence within the last 3 years is re-classified as a first-time home buyer. Couples also qualify as first-time home buyers if one spouse has not owned a home in the last 3 years.

For Sellers:

Despite the increase in mortgage rates and subsequent drop in demand, prices continue to rise in Greater Phoenix and are expected to continue doing so for the next 3-5 months. While still down year-over-year, the median sales price has recovered 5% since our December newsletter, up $22K. Before the end of the 3rd quarter this year, it’s very likely annual appreciation rates will turn positive once again.

Nearly every city is officially a seller’s market this month. Maricopa and Buckeye are no longer buyer’s markets. They are now in balance and moving towards seller’s markets once again. The only city remaining in a buyer’s market is Casa Grande at this time. When markets soften like they did last year, the cities on the outskirts fall into buyer’s markets first and are the last to come out. Cities on the interior are the last to go into buyer’s markets and the first to come out. As the interior cities such as Phoenix, Glendale, and Chandler first moved into a seller’s markets in January, the shift of these outlying areas is the final step to coming full circle in the market correction.

Improving market conditions for sellers only slightly relieves the need to contribute to closing costs and rate buydowns for buyers. Over 50% of sales between $200K-$500K involved sellers contributing to buyers’ costs, with the median contribution at $7,500 so far this month. That’s down from January’s sales, where 62% involved concessions in this price range at a median cost of $9,300. So, while things are improving, make no mistake that Greater Phoenix would not be in an appreciating market if sellers were not willing and able to offset the costs associated with closing on a home.
 

Be sure to call if you have any questions about this report or about how the market is performing.

Would you like to know what is happening in your neighborhood? 

Would you like to know the value of your home?

Do you need help deciding whether to sell or not, or would you like to know if now is the right time to buy?


I would be very happy to get you that information.

The commentary was written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report ©2023 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC
March 8, 2023

Here’s what builders think of the housing market. Hint: It’s good news!

 

Will 2023 mark the end of this turbulent real estate market?

New home builders seem to think so. After 12 straight month-over-month declines in builder confidence, the trend seems to be reversing course, according to the latest reading of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI recorded its second consecutive month of builder confidence gains with a score of 72 for February, the strongest reading since September 2022.

Builder confidence is an important real estate market predictor because it reflects the sentiment and expectations of professionals directly involved in the home construction industry. Builders are on the front lines of the housing market and have direct insight into factors such as land availability, material costs, and labor availability, which are critical to their business.

Builders are feeling positive about new home sales and the potential for a more normal and healthy housing market. This contrasts with last year, which saw a surge in demand for existing homes due to the pandemic and supply chain disruptions that affected the new home construction market.

Cautiously Optimistic

Builders are cautiously optimistic about the future as they continue to face challenges such as rising materials costs and shortages of labor and land. However, the positive sentiment among builders is a good sign for the overall health of the housing market and could potentially lead to an increase in new home construction in the coming months.

New vs. Existing Homes

In rising-rate environments, homeowners are disincentivized to sell, exacerbating the housing shortage. New construction homes are attempting to fill the gap created by the lack of available inventory in the existing home space. Price adjustments and builder incentives are helping to drive this trend.

Overall, builder confidence is an important real estate market predictor because it provides valuable insight into the health of the housing market from the perspective of industry professionals who are intimately familiar with the industry's challenges and opportunities.

Interested in a new build? I work hand-and-hand with many of the local builders and new home communities and can guild and help you find your next dream home. 

Feb. 28, 2023

Here's what's happening in Gilbert, AZ real estate for the last week of Feb 2023

Interesting way to end the month in Gilbert. Statistics are from the beginning of the month to the month's end and are specific to Gilbert. 

The median list price has increased by $34,900.00 since the beginning of the month. 

The median price of new listings increased by $1,010.00 since the beginning of the month.

The price per square is up $2.00 since the beginning of the month.

The average days on the market have declined by 4, and the median has decreased by 14.

The inventory of homes has also declined by 45 homes. 

Questions about your city? Let me know, and I will be happy to provide you with the recent data.

 

Dec. 28, 2022

Here's what's happening in Gilbert, AZ real estate for the last week of December 2022

Gilbert, AZ

Wed Dec 28, 2022

This week the median list price for Gilbert, AZ, is $575,000, with the market action index hovering around 39. This is an increase over last month's market action index of 38. Inventory has decreased to 546.

The market remains in relative stasis in terms of sales to inventory. Prices have not been moving higher for several weeks. However, inventory is sufficiently low to keep us in the Seller’s Market zone, so watch changes in the MAI. If the market heats up persistently, prices will likely resume an upward climb.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nov. 17, 2022

Here's what's happening in Mesa, AZ real estate for the week of Nov 17th, 2022

Mesa, AZ

Thu Nov 17 2022
This week the median list price for Mesa, AZ, is $489,999, with the market action index hovering around 39. This is less than last month's market action index of 40. Inventory has increased to 1,187.

 

 

Questions on the market or curious about the value of your home? Feel free to message Brad or call direct at (602) 679-1025

Nov. 11, 2022

Happy Veterans Day!

                The History of Veterans Day

World War I – known at the time as “The Great War” - officially ended when the Treaty of Versailles was signed on June 28, 1919, in the Palace of Versailles outside the town of Versailles, France. However, fighting ceased seven months earlier when an armistice or temporary cessation of hostilities, between the Allied nations and Germany went into effect on the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month. For that reason, November 11, 1918, is generally regarded as the end of “the war to end all wars.”

In November 1919, President Wilson proclaimed November 11 as the first commemoration of Armistice Day with the following words: "To us in America, the reflections of Armistice Day will be filled with solemn pride in the heroism of those who died in the country’s service and with gratitude for the victory, both because of the thing from which it has freed us and because of the opportunity it has given America to show her sympathy with peace and justice in the councils of the nations…"

The idea of the celebration was for a day observed with parades and public meetings and a brief suspension of business beginning at 11:00 a.m.

An Act (52 Stat. 351; 5 U. S. Code, Sec. 87a) approved May 13, 1938, made the 11th of November in each year a legal holiday—a day to be dedicated to the cause of world peace and to be after that celebrated and known as "Armistice Day." Armistice Day was primarily a day set aside to honor veterans of World War I, but in 1954, after World War II had required the greatest mobilization of soldiers, sailors, Marines, and airmen in the Nation’s history; after American forces had fought aggression in Korea, the 83rd Congress, at the urging of the veterans' service organizations, amended the Act of 1938 by striking out the word "Armistice" and inserting in its place the word "Veterans." With the approval of this legislation (Public Law 380) on June 1, 1954, November 11th became a day to honor American veterans of all wars.

Later that same year, on October 8th, President Dwight D. Eisenhower issued the first "Veterans Day Proclamation," which stated: "To ensure proper and widespread observance of this anniversary, all veterans, all veterans' organizations, and the entire citizenry will wish to join hands in the common purpose. Toward this end, I am designating the Administrator of Veterans Affairs as Chairman of a Veterans Day National Committee, which shall include such other persons as the Chairman may select, and which will coordinate at the national level necessary planning for the observance. I am also requesting the heads of all departments and agencies of the Executive branch of the Government to assist the National Committee in every way possible."

On that same day, President Eisenhower sent a letter to the Honorable Harvey V. Higley, Administrator of Veterans Affairs (VA), designating him as Chairman of the Veterans Day National Committee.

In 1958, the White House advised VA's General Counsel that the 1954 designation of the VA Administrator as Chairman of the Veterans Day National Committee applied to all subsequent VA Administrators. Since March 1989, when VA was elevated to a cabinet-level department, the Secretary of Veterans Affairs has served as the committee's chairman.

Veterans Day continues to be observed on November 11. The restoration of the observance of Veterans Day to November 11 not only preserves the historical significance of the date but helps focus attention on the important purpose of Veterans Day: A celebration to honor America's veterans for their patriotism, love of country, and willingness to serve and sacrifice for the common good.

 

 
Nov. 2, 2022

Here's what's happening in Mesa, AZ, real estate for the 1st Week of Nov, 2022

Mesa, AZ

Wed Nov 02 2022
This week the median list price for Mesa, AZ, is $497,000, with the market action index hovering around 40. This is less than last month's market action index of 41. Inventory has increased to 1,199.

 

ffffffffff

Selling your home before the holidays? Don't miss my article here! 

 

Oct. 27, 2022

Here's what's happening in Mesa, AZ real estate for this week Oct 27th 2022

Mesa, AZ

Thu Oct 27 2022
This week the median list price for Mesa, AZ, is $498,600, with the market action index hovering around 40. This is less than last month's market action index of 42. Inventory has increased to 1,191.

Market Action Index

This answers “How’s the Market?” by comparing sales rate versus inventory.

The market has been cooling over time, and prices have recently flattened. Despite the consistent decrease in Market Action Index (MAI), we’re in a Seller’s Market (where significant demand leaves little inventory available). If the MAI begins to climb, prices will likely follow suit. If the MAI drops consistently or falls into the Buyer’s zone, watch for downward pressure on prices.

Lending Note

The market seems to have paused around this plateau. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability of this trend.

Oct. 19, 2022

Here's what's happening in Mesa, AZ real estate for this week Oct 19th 2022

Mesa, AZ

Wed Oct 19 2022
This week the median list price for Mesa, AZ, is $498,000, with the market action index hovering around 41. This is less than last month's market action index of 42. Inventory has increased to 1,141.

Market Action Index

This answers “How’s the Market?” by comparing the rate of sales versus inventory.

The market has been cooling over time, and prices have recently flattened. Despite the consistent decrease in Market Action Index (MAI), we’re in a Seller’s Market (where significant demand leaves little inventory available). If the MAI begins to climb, prices will likely follow suit. If the MAI drops consistently or falls into the Buyer’s zone, watch for downward pressure on prices.