Gilbert and East Valley Real Estate News & Market Trends

You’ll find our blog to be a wealth of information, covering everything from local market statistics and home values to community happenings. That’s because we care about the community and want to help you find your place in it. Please reach out if you have any questions at all. We’d love to talk with you!

Aug. 16, 2021

Supply Up 42% Since May, Price Reductions Up 131% Affordability Dips Below Normal to 56%

For Buyers:

There is a little relief ahead for buyers in Greater Phoenix. Supply continues to rise in price points between $300K-$1.5M and buyer demand has settled into a normal seasonal cool down that is expected to last through the end of the year. What this means for buyers is the 2nd half of 2021 so far has more choice and less competition. There are two things going on right now in the market. The first is a non-seasonal increase in supply, fueled by a high number of new listings hitting the market every week. Typically August is the low point of the summer season for supply. However this year it is the high point and continuing to rise, up 42% since May. That’s good news for buyers as it provides more choice. The second is a seasonal decline in buyer activity. Typically buyer demand shoots up in the first half of the year, peaking around May, then it gradually declines in the 2nd half of the year. Last year the market saw the opposite due to the pandemic, demand dropped when it was supposed to rise and rose when it was supposed to drop. The return to a normal seasonal rhythm in 2021 means that there may be slightly less competition from other buyers in the 3rd and 4th quarters. This doesn’t mean the housing market has gone cold; it has simply made it a little more tolerable to navigate. To put it in numbers, on April 8th, there were 12,862 listings under contract and only 4,177 active. Today on August 9th, there are 11,743 under contract and 7,166 active. Add a recent decline in interest rates keeping payments down and exhausted buyers have a little more room to breathe.

For Sellers:

The Home Opportunity Index (HOI), published by the National Association of Home Builders every quarter, measures housing affordability based on the median family income per metro area. Last quarter, the HOI for Greater Phoenix fell to 56 (we predicted it would be 57 based on preliminary MLS data). This is below the normal range for the Phoenix metro area of 60-75. What does this mean? This means that a household making the median family income of $79,000 per year could technically afford 56% of what sold in the 2nd Quarter of 2021. The last time the HOI dipped below 60 was in the 4th Quarter of 2018 when it hit 57. The market responded with a drop in annual appreciation from 10% to just 4% within 3 months. Since June of this year, annual appreciation of the monthly median sales price has declined from 32% to 28%. As affordability declines, it’s reasonable to expect the market will begin to resist the prices sellers initially ask for their homes. In other words, there will be fewer buyers able to bear dramatic monthly increases in home costs like those seen over the past year. Meanwhile, exuberant sellers continue to list their homes at prices that defy comparable sales. As these homes sit for an extra day or two on the market without an accepted contract, weekly price reductions have risen 131% since May with a median price drop of $14,000. Typically, the median price reduction is $5,000. Of course, there are still properties closing over asking price. However, those contracts were accepted approximately 1-1.5 months ago when the market was hotter than it is now. The percentage of sales over asking price has declined from 60% to 55% over the past two months, with the median amount over list price declining as well from $20,000 to $15,000. We expect this trend to continue.

 

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report ©2021 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Aug. 12, 2021

Here's what's happening in Gilbert, AZ real estate for the week of 8-12-21

Gilbert, AZ

Thu Aug 12, 2021
This week the median list price for Gilbert, AZ is $569,900 with the market action index hovering around 89. This is less than last month's market action index of 93. Inventory has increased to 248.

 

 

July 26, 2021

Housing Demand Weakens...What is to Come?

The monthly sales rate is now just over 9,000, well below last year when it was over 10,000. 

 

Although the monthly sales rate has only declined for the last 5 weeks, our Cromford® Demand Index has been anticipating this since the end of the first quarter. This is because the CDI uses data from listings under contract to compute demand, not just closed listings.

 

 

Currently, demand appears to be stable and still above normal, but nowhere near as impressive as it was during the second half of 2020. If demand had stayed as strong as last year, I have little doubt that supply would not be rising as it is now. Having said that, supply is only rising at a modest rate and nothing like as fast as it did back in the summer of 2005.

 

The summer of 2005 looked exactly like a bubble bursting with prices continuing to rise even as demand plummeted and supply soared. In those days the bubble was primed by rampant, mindless speculation and the widespread belief that prices only ever went up. In 2021 we have a very different situation with widespread caution, largely because so many people vividly remember the lessons of 2005. This caution will keep the rate of price increases lower than 2005 and we are already seeing a significant slowdown in appreciation. This is a healthy sign and a prerequisite to avoiding a painful period of declining prices. The latter still looks unlikely based on the current market readings.

 

The commentary was written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report

©2021 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

 

#CallBradToSellYourPad

July 14, 2021

Here's what's happening in Gilbert, AZ real estate this week 7-14-21

 

June 24, 2021

Here's what's happening in Gilbert, AZ real estate this week 6-24-21

Gilbert, AZ

Thu Jun 24, 2021
This week the median list price for Gilbert, AZ is $550,000 with the market action index hovering around 97. This is less than last month's market action index of 100. Inventory has increased to 219. I will continue to track this slowing trend. 

June 16, 2021

Here's what's happening in Gilbert, AZ real estate this week 6-16-21

Gilbert, AZ

Wed Jun 16, 2021
This week the median list price for Gilbert, AZ is $549,900 with the market action index hovering around 98. This is less than last week's market action index of 100 as the average list price has decreased by $1000.00 and inventory has increased to 191.

 

 

June 14, 2021

Young Adults Underestimate Costs of Homeownership

Young adults may be missing some key information to move forward in the housing market. For example, two out of three young adults recently surveyed say they are waiting for lower mortgage rates to start the homebuying process, according to a survey of 1,000 non-owner millennials (between the ages of 25 to 40) conducted by Lombardo Homes. However, economists have largely predicted that mortgage rates will soon start to edge upwards in the coming weeks, moving higher from their current lows below 3%.

With mortgage rates already near historic lows, this “may speak to a lack of education and awareness among this cohort of home buyers,” the survey notes.

Also, many young adults are underestimating how much they need for homeownership, the survey finds. Millennials underestimated how much home they can afford right now, how much interest they would pay over a 30-year mortgage, and how much home values appreciate, on average, over 10 years, the survey notes.

Consumers surveyed also showed a lack of knowledge over average home prices and property taxes in their local area. Fifty-nine percent of consumers surveyed did not know that the seller tends to pay all the real estate agent fees. Respondents also showed lots of confusion over many real estate terms.

Regardless of some of the confusion, 83% of respondents say they are actively saving for a home right now. But high rents may be standing in their way from making any major progress. Seventy-one percent say their rent is so high it’s hard to accumulate savings for buying a home.

Other top reasons millennials say they haven’t bought a home yet are: “Can’t afford a down payment” (85%); “can’t afford something nice enough to compel me to buy” (67%); “want to be flexible, not tied to one area” (63%); and “not ready for the commitment” (62%).

Bottom line - It's a difficult market for first-time homebuyers right now. The market is ultra-competitive and homes are selling quickly. Let's sit down to discuss your options and plan to make homeownership a viable goal in your future. 

Source: Lombardo Homes, May 13th, 2021

Posted in Buyers, Buying a Home
June 10, 2021

Here's what's happening in Gilbert, AZ real estate this week 6-10-21

Gilbert, AZ

Thu Jun 10, 2021
This week the median list price for Gilbert, AZ is $550,000 with the market action index hovering around 100. This is about the same as last month's market action index of 100. Inventory has increased to 168.

Market Action Index

This answers “How’s the Market?” by comparing the rate of sales versus inventory.



In the last few weeks, the market has achieved a relative stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, inventory is sufficiently low to keep us in the Seller’s Market zone so watch changes in the MAI. If the market heats up, prices are likely to resume an upward climb.

June 3, 2021

Here's what's happening in Gilbert, AZ 6-2-21

This week the median list price for Gilbert, AZ is $565,000 with the market action index hovering around 100. This is about the same as last month's market action index of 100. Inventory has increased to 160 from last week's 157. 

 

Median List Price

 

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June 1, 2021

What to do this month | June 2021

JUNE IS NATIONAL HOMEOWNERSHIP MONTH

National Homeownership Month in June shines a spotlight on supporting the American Dream of homeownership. It’s also a time to recognize the organizations that help individuals and families to achieve their goals.

From the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and Federal Housing Administration to the realtors, financial and housing counselors, and assistance programs, they all play a part in helping first-time homebuyers make their dream come true.

After an extreme low in 2016, homeownership has been making a gradual recovery. Ownership trends are changing, though. With priorities changing, so do the types of homes people are seeking.

HOW TO OBSERVE #HomeownershipMonth

If you are considering purchasing a home for the first time and don’t know where to start, visit www.homeselleraz.com for a guide, or feel free to call me and I can provide you a list of resources to consider your options and help you understand the everchanging market. 

NATIONAL HOMEOWNERSHIP MONTH HISTORY

In 1995, National Homeownership Week began as a strategy of President William Clinton’s administration to increase homeownership across the nation. In 2002, President George W. Bush expanded the observance to the entire month of June.

 #HomeownershipMonth #CallBradToSellYourPad